If people could reliably – even halfway-reliably – predict things, they could quite literally make livings through gambling; technically, it couldn’t even be called gambling. While some people are professional gamblers in somewhat-predictable areas of betting like sports, most people’s abilities for predicting things are horrible.
Let’s look at one of Silicon Valley’s top investor’s predictions and statements about the economy, financial instruments, and business at large. All of them weren’t correct – the man isn’t a psychic – though a fair amount of them was, in fact, on point.
The man’s name is Shervin Pishevar
First-generation Iranian immigrant Shervin Pishevar unleashed a level-headed slew of tweets in the first week of February 2018. As we approach the six-month anniversary of Mr. Pishevar’s memorable tweetstorm, let’s look back at some of the things he asserted as fact – things that can’t reliably be measured, therefore making predictions inherently impossible – and other market events he quantified and got correct – Shervin Pishevar just might be Ms. Cleo in disguise.
Bitcoin fell even further from its December 2018 peak
On February 6, Shervin Pishevar declared that Bitcoin – the world’s first cryptocurrency was trading for roughly $7,900 on February 6, 2018 – would drop to anywhere between $2,000 and $5,000 in terms of USD per bitcoin. Thus far, the cryptocurrency has, in fact, reached a low price of roughly $5,700 this year – to be precise, the digital currency dropped to that low on June 24, 2018.
Though it never reached a true $5,000 US Dollar per bitcoin mark, Shervin Pishevar’s prediction got pretty close.
Gold would get more expensive, he said
The price of gold was between $1,330 and $1,320 per ounce throughout February 6. Although 2018 has yet to close as of July 31, 2018 – there are, in fact, five more months left in the year – the precious metal is currently trading about $100 less today than it was in the first week of February.
You win some, you lose some – then again, Shervin Pishevar didn’t specify a time horizon, making it not possible to make a judgment on his tweet’s accuracy yet.